Sweden Faces Drastic Shift from Electricity Exporter to Importer by 2035
Sweden is projected to shift from being an electricity exporter to becoming increasingly reliant on imports due to rising demand and domestic production constraints.
Key Points
- • Sweden's electricity needs are expected to double by 2045.
- • The country may face negative effect balance for up to two-thirds of the year by 2035.
- • Norrbotten's demand will surge due to fossil-free steel production initiatives.
- • Concerns over investment paralysis in the energy sector due to uncertainty.
A new report from Sweco warns that Sweden is on the brink of a significant transition, moving from being an electricity exporter to one increasingly reliant on imports over the next decade due to rising demand and production limitations. Previously, the country has managed to export surplus electricity, but changing dynamics in energy supply and demand are prompting a re-evaluation of its energy strategy.
The report highlights that Sweden's electricity needs are projected to double by 2045, with domestic production struggling to keep pace. It predicts that the number of hours the country experiences negative effect balance—where demand exceeds supply—could jump from a few hours currently to as much as two-thirds of the year by 2035. Notably, the demand surge is expected to be most pronounced in Norrbotten, driven by fossil-free steel production initiatives, followed by rising consumption in Västra Götaland, Stockholm, and Skåne.
Current forecasts suggest the peak demand could soar from 25 gigawatts today to 41 gigawatts by 2045. Though there are proposals to enhance nuclear power capacity and increase wind energy production, the report indicates that these adjustments may not be sufficient to address the forthcoming imbalance, projecting a critical deterioration in the electricity system's effectiveness starting next year.
Johan Lindehag, CEO of Ellevio, expressed concern over the prevailing uncertainties in the sector that could jeopardize investment initiatives and hinder development efforts. The combination of high demand and insufficient production capacity signals a daunting challenge for Sweden's energy policymakers as they look toward a future where electricity imports become essential to meet national needs.